That is a guess. It has a method behind it, and the method is worth more to you than the number. I am not buying yet, and the reason I am waiting is the useful part of this piece.

Bitcoin trades near $63,000 today, down more than 50% from its all-time high of $126,080 set on October 6, 2025. A lot of people are calling this the bottom. I think there is one more leg down first.

Take Bitcoin's closing price for each of the last 200 weeks and average them. That gives you four years of price history in one number. Traders call it the 200-week moving average.

Bitcoin has closed a week below that line only four times ever. In 2015. Across 2018 and 2019. During the COVID crash in March 2020. And in June 2022.

Three of those four breaks landed near the bottom, and a new all-time high followed within 12 to 24 months.

It happened again this June. Bitcoin closed a week at $59,486 while the average sat at $62,443, the first weekly close under the line since 2022. Price has since crawled back to roughly $63,000 against an average of $63,770.

So the line broke and got reclaimed. That is the whole setup, and it is why I am watching instead of buying.

The first break rarely marks the bottom.

2022 is the case that matters here, because it is the one time out of four where a break led to more pain instead of a quick recovery. In June 2022 Bitcoin closed at $20,552 with its 200-week average near $22,300. Price kept sliding until it reached about 0.68 times that average.

Run the same ratio on today's numbers. 0.68 of $63,770 lands between $41,000 and $42,000.

That is my $40,000. One historical analog, one ratio, one number. Treat it as a zone rather than a price target, because it will not print neatly.

Because I will not know it was $40,000 until months later.

I never buy into a fall. A falling knife cuts the hand that grabs it. My rule is to wait until price has turned and is climbing again before I put money to work.

That rule costs me the exact bottom every single time. It also keeps me out of the stretch that ruins people. In 2022, buyers who stepped in at $30,000 were right about the asset and wrong by half. Price went to $15,500 and sat there.

The word for what I am waiting through is capitulation. It means sellers have given up and will take any price at all. Miners power off machines they can no longer run at a profit. Lenders blow up. Funds close and hand back what is left. Regular people stop opening the app. Reporters write the obituary again.

That is when buying gets good. It is also a terrible time to be early.

The halving is the scheduled event where the reward paid to miners gets cut in half. It has landed near the middle of every past cycle. The next one arrives in April 2028.

Buy near $40,000. Sell near the old high of $126,080.

$$\frac{126{,}080 - 40{,}000}{40{,}000} = 2.15 = 215%$$

Call it 215% over two or three years, and that is only for a return to the previous high. Anything beyond it is gravy I am not counting on.

Now compare that to buying today at $63,000 and riding it to the same high. That pays 100%.

Waiting roughly doubles the payout. The cost is a few months of watching and the risk of missing it entirely.

Bitcoin is worth about $1.25 trillion now. The 100x years are behind it. An asset that size only moves when trillions of dollars change their mind, and trillions of dollars are slow.

What Bitcoin still has is enormous volatility and a boom-bust rhythm that keeps repeating. Price swings of 40% to 52% in a year are normal for it.

So I moved it in my head. It used to be a thing I owned and never sold. Now it is a thing I buy near the bottom of a cycle and sell into the top of one.

Owning a small amount permanently still makes sense as insurance against your own government, and I hold some that way. That is a separate job with a separate answer, which I will get to next week.

The line may hold from here. No capitulation, no discount, and I sit this one out. Missing a trade costs nothing.

The cycle may be stretching. This last top came later than the old four-year rhythm predicted. If that continues, my 2026 and 2027 dates slide right.

And $40,000 is one analog run on one prior cycle. The bottom could print at $52,000. It could print at $28,000.

None of that breaks the plan, because my entry trigger is price turning back up. Wherever that happens is where I start buying.

Deciding to buy leaves the harder question open, which is what to actually press buy on. Coins in a wallet, a spot ETF like IBIT, or a stock like MSTR are three very different trades on the same asset.

One of them cuts your top federal tax rate from 37% to roughly 27%. One charges a premium of more than 3x the value of the coins it holds, and people pay it happily.