This website uses cookies

Read our Privacy policy and Terms of use for more information.

For most people the answer is IBIT or FBTC, and you can stop reading here.

A spot ETF gets you Bitcoin's price in a normal brokerage account with no wallet, no keys, and one tax form at the end of the year. It works inside an IRA. It costs about a quarter of a percent a year. If you have no specific reason to do something else, do that.

The rest of this is about when something else is the better answer, because the wrapper you pick changes your tax bill, your leverage, and what happens to you if a company standing between you and the coins goes under.

Last week I laid out why I am waiting for a capitulation near $40,000 before buying any of these: when will Bitcoin bottom.

There are five ways in.

1. Coins on an exchange, moved to cold storage

You open an account at Coinbase or Kraken, buy the coins, then move them off the exchange to a hardware wallet you control. You write down the recovery phrase. You store a backup somewhere a fire cannot reach. Two years later you run the whole thing in reverse to sell.

This is the most work on the list by a wide margin. It also carries a risk none of the others do, which is losing your keys and losing the money forever.

I own some this way anyway, and the reason has nothing to do with returns. It is insurance against my own government. Same logic as physical gold in a safe. If capital controls arrive, or an account gets frozen, or a government does something creative with people's savings, coins in a wallet you control sit outside that system.

Insurance justifies the work. A two-year trade does not.

2. Spot ETFs: IBIT and FBTC

IBIT is BlackRock's. FBTC is Fidelity's. There are a dozen more and they all do the same job.

You buy them from your phone in any brokerage account. No keys, no transfers, no spreadsheet of transactions at tax time. Click to buy, click to sell.

The IRA angle matters more than people give it credit for. A 215% gain in a taxable account arrives with a bill attached. The same gain inside a Roth does not.

You pay an expense ratio for the convenience, roughly 0.25% a year on the cheap ones. Over a two-year hold that is rounding error against the size of the move you are playing for.

This is the default. Most readers should stop here.

3. Futures: /BTC and /MBT

The CME lists two. /BTC is 5 Bitcoin per contract, which is a big position for an individual. /MBT is the micro at 0.1 Bitcoin, which is the one worth looking at.

Two things make futures interesting.

The first is tax. Futures fall under Section 1256 of the tax code, which splits your gain 60% long-term and 40% short-term no matter how long you actually held it. Blend those rates and the top federal rate lands near 27% instead of the 37% you would owe on a short-term gain. Check with your tax person, but the gap is real and it is large.

The second is capital efficiency. Margin lets you control roughly twice the exposure per dollar. Leverage on crypto is how people manage to be right about direction and still get wiped out on the way there. Handle with care.

The cost is complexity. Contracts expire, so you have to roll into the next one, and rolling has a price. When later contracts trade above the front month, that price shows up as steady drag on your position. There are options on these too, and stacking leverage on top of leverage is usually how someone finds out what a margin call feels like.

Futures are a fine tool for a person who already trades futures. The bottom of a bear market is a bad classroom.

4. Crypto equities: COIN

Coinbase is the clean example.

The stock gives you something an ETF cannot. If Bitcoin rises, interest in the company rises with it, and investors will pay a higher multiple on its earnings. Your return gets pushed by the price of Bitcoin and by the market's mood about the business at the same time. That works just as hard in reverse on the way down.

Coinbase also earns most of its money from fees on trading volume. It gets paid when people trade, in either direction, instead of betting on price itself. That is a saner way to own the crypto economy than owning a company whose only asset is the coin.

What you take on is ordinary business risk. A company can do something dumb and die. An ETF cannot.

5. Treasury companies: MSTR

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, holds 843,775 Bitcoin worth about $53 billion. The stock trades at a premium or a discount to that pile. The industry calls it mNAV, which is just the share price divided by the value of the Bitcoin behind each share.

Functionally these are ETFs. They are holding vehicles for coins. Yet for reasons past my understanding, Michael Saylor has convinced a great many people to pay a premium for owning Bitcoin through his company rather than through a fund charging 0.25%. In the last bull market that premium ran past 3x.

I have been loud about the timing of their purchases and their cash management. My read is that they survive this drawdown anyway, since they have already sold enough Bitcoin to cover the dividends on their preferred products for the next couple of years.

If they come out the far side with the premium intact, the stock runs on three engines at once. The Bitcoin price, the premium expanding again, and more coins per share. That combination makes it a strange dark horse in a portfolio like mine.

Pick the job, and the product falls out

If the job is insurance against your own government, coins in a hardware wallet is the only thing that does it. Nothing else on this list substitutes.

If the job is to catch the next bull market and get out in a couple of years, the ETF does it with the least friction. Futures do it with better tax treatment and more ways to hurt yourself. COIN and MSTR do it with more upside and a company attached to your outcome.

Most people are doing the second job. Most people should buy the ETF.

An Important Distinction…

Say you take three of these and split your money evenly. A third to IBIT, a third to COIN, a third to MSTR. It looks like diversification.

It is not, and the reason is arithmetic. MSTR swings more than twice as hard as Bitcoin does, so an even split quietly hands two thirds of your risk to two holdings. Next week has the fix, and it takes four lines of math.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for general educational and informational purposes only and is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. It reflects the author's personal opinions, is not tailored to any individual, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal, and past performance does not guarantee future results. The author is not a registered investment adviser. Before making any financial decision, consult a qualified professional who can consider your specific situation; you are solely responsible for your own decisions.